Probabilistic cascading event risk assessment

Klaus Köck; Josef Stadler; Herwig Renner

doi:10.1109/PSCC.2014.7038338

Probabilistic cascading event risk assessment

Klaus Köck
, Josef Stadler
, Herwig Renner

Institute of Electrical Power Systems (4320)

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference paper › peer-review

Abstract

This paper describes an algorithm for the identification of rare events with high severities, potentially leading to blackouts in power systems, and the quantification of the risk a given system state holds. Based on the method of probabilistic load flow, probability density functions of the branch loadings under consideration of the forecast uncertainty are determined. From that branch tripping probabilities are derived. Using these tripping probabilities, numerous cascades are simulated. As the main output of this method the overall risk is calculated. This method is applied to the IEEE 118-bus test system extended by uncertainty data and outage statistics.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Proceedings of the 18th Power Systems Computation Conference
Number of pages	7
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1109/PSCC.2014.7038338
Publication status	Published - 2014
Event	18th Power Systems Computation Conference: PSCC 2014 - Wroclaw, Poland Duration: 18 Aug 2014 → 22 Aug 2014

Conference

Conference	18th Power Systems Computation Conference
Abbreviated title	PSCC 2014
Country/Territory	Poland
City	Wroclaw
Period	18/08/14 → 22/08/14

Keywords

probabilistic load flow
redispatch
risk assessment
branch tripping probability
Transmission system security assessment

Fields of Expertise

Sonstiges

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10.1109/PSCC.2014.7038338

108_PSCC_Koeck.pdfSubmitted manuscript, 1.05 MBLicence: CC BY-NC 4.0

Cite this

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title = "Probabilistic cascading event risk assessment",

abstract = "This paper describes an algorithm for the identification of rare events with high severities, potentially leading to blackouts in power systems, and the quantification of the risk a given system state holds. Based on the method of probabilistic load flow, probability density functions of the branch loadings under consideration of the forecast uncertainty are determined. From that branch tripping probabilities are derived. Using these tripping probabilities, numerous cascades are simulated. As the main output of this method the overall risk is calculated. This method is applied to the IEEE 118-bus test system extended by uncertainty data and outage statistics.",

keywords = "probabilistic load flow, redispatch, risk assessment, branch tripping probability, Transmission system security assessment",

author = "Klaus K{\"o}ck and Josef Stadler and Herwig Renner",

year = "2014",

doi = "10.1109/PSCC.2014.7038338",

language = "English",

isbn = "978-839358013-2",

booktitle = "Proceedings of the 18th Power Systems Computation Conference",

note = "18th Power Systems Computation Conference : PSCC 2014, PSCC 2014 ; Conference date: 18-08-2014 Through 22-08-2014",

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TY - GEN

T1 - Probabilistic cascading event risk assessment

AU - Köck, Klaus

AU - Stadler, Josef

AU - Renner, Herwig

PY - 2014

Y1 - 2014

N2 - This paper describes an algorithm for the identification of rare events with high severities, potentially leading to blackouts in power systems, and the quantification of the risk a given system state holds. Based on the method of probabilistic load flow, probability density functions of the branch loadings under consideration of the forecast uncertainty are determined. From that branch tripping probabilities are derived. Using these tripping probabilities, numerous cascades are simulated. As the main output of this method the overall risk is calculated. This method is applied to the IEEE 118-bus test system extended by uncertainty data and outage statistics.

AB - This paper describes an algorithm for the identification of rare events with high severities, potentially leading to blackouts in power systems, and the quantification of the risk a given system state holds. Based on the method of probabilistic load flow, probability density functions of the branch loadings under consideration of the forecast uncertainty are determined. From that branch tripping probabilities are derived. Using these tripping probabilities, numerous cascades are simulated. As the main output of this method the overall risk is calculated. This method is applied to the IEEE 118-bus test system extended by uncertainty data and outage statistics.

KW - probabilistic load flow

KW - redispatch

KW - risk assessment

KW - branch tripping probability

KW - Transmission system security assessment

U2 - 10.1109/PSCC.2014.7038338

DO - 10.1109/PSCC.2014.7038338

M3 - Conference paper

SN - 978-839358013-2

BT - Proceedings of the 18th Power Systems Computation Conference

T2 - 18th Power Systems Computation Conference

Y2 - 18 August 2014 through 22 August 2014

ER -

Probabilistic cascading event risk assessment

Abstract

Conference

Keywords

Fields of Expertise

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Cite this