Exact asymptotics of ruin probabilities with linear Hawkes arrivals

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

In this contribution we consider a risk process whose arrivals are driven by a linear marked Hawkes process. Using an appropriate change of measure and a generalized renewal theorem, we are able to derive the exact asymptotics of the process's ruin probability in the case of light-tailed claims. On the other hand, we can exploit the principle of one large jump to derive the analogous result in the heavy-tailed situation. Furthermore, we derive several intermediate results like the Harris recurrence of the Hawkes intensity process which are of their own interest.

Original languageEnglish
Article number104571
Number of pages40
JournalStochastic Processes and their Applications
Volume182
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Apr 2025

Keywords

  • Cramér asymptotics
  • Hawkes process
  • Ruin probability
  • Subexponential asymptotics

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Modelling and Simulation
  • Applied Mathematics

Fields of Expertise

  • Information, Communication & Computing

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