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Abstract
In this contribution we consider a risk process whose arrivals are driven by a linear marked Hawkes process. Using an appropriate change of measure and a generalized renewal theorem, we are able to derive the exact asymptotics of the process's ruin probability in the case of light-tailed claims. On the other hand, we can exploit the principle of one large jump to derive the analogous result in the heavy-tailed situation. Furthermore, we derive several intermediate results like the Harris recurrence of the Hawkes intensity process which are of their own interest.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 104571 |
| Number of pages | 40 |
| Journal | Stochastic Processes and their Applications |
| Volume | 182 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - Apr 2025 |
Keywords
- Cramér asymptotics
- Hawkes process
- Ruin probability
- Subexponential asymptotics
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Statistics and Probability
- Modelling and Simulation
- Applied Mathematics
Fields of Expertise
- Information, Communication & Computing
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- 1 Finished
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FWF - Risk Modelling - Analysis, Simulation and Optimization
Thonhauser, S. M. (Project manager on research unit) & Pojer, S. (Attendee / Assistant)
1/07/20 → 30/06/25
Project: Research project