Assessing the impact of SARS-CoV-2 prevention measures in Austrian schools using agent-based simulations and cluster tracing data

Jana Lasser; Johannes Sorger; Lukas Richter; Stefan Thurner; Daniela Schmid; Peter Klimek

doi:10.1038/s41467-022-28170-6

Assessing the impact of SARS-CoV-2 prevention measures in Austrian schools using agent-based simulations and cluster tracing data

Jana Lasser^*
, Johannes Sorger
, Lukas Richter
, Stefan Thurner
, Daniela Schmid
, Peter Klimek^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Institute of Human-Centred Computing (7060)

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

We aim to identify those measures that effectively control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Austrian schools. Using cluster tracing data we calibrate an agent-based epidemiological model and consider situations where the B1.617.2 (delta) virus strain is dominant and parts of the population are vaccinated to quantify the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as room ventilation, reduction of class size, wearing of masks during lessons, vaccinations, and school entry testing by SARS-CoV2-antigen tests. In the data we find that 40% of all clusters involved no more than two cases, and 3% of the clusters only had more than 20 cases. The model shows that combinations of NPIs together with vaccinations are necessary to allow for a controlled opening of schools under sustained community transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant. For plausible vaccination rates, primary (secondary) schools require a combination of at least two (three) of the above NPIs.

Original language	English
Article number	554
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	13
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28170-6
Publication status	Published - Dec 2022

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 3 Good Health and Well-being

Keywords

Agent-based model
COVID-19
network
intervention measures
school

ASJC Scopus subject areas

General Physics and Astronomy
General Chemistry
General Biochemistry,Genetics and Molecular Biology

Fields of Expertise

Information, Communication & Computing

Access to Document

10.1038/s41467-022-28170-6Licence: CC BY 4.0

Cite this

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title = "Assessing the impact of SARS-CoV-2 prevention measures in Austrian schools using agent-based simulations and cluster tracing data",

abstract = "We aim to identify those measures that effectively control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Austrian schools. Using cluster tracing data we calibrate an agent-based epidemiological model and consider situations where the B1.617.2 (delta) virus strain is dominant and parts of the population are vaccinated to quantify the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as room ventilation, reduction of class size, wearing of masks during lessons, vaccinations, and school entry testing by SARS-CoV2-antigen tests. In the data we find that 40\% of all clusters involved no more than two cases, and 3\% of the clusters only had more than 20 cases. The model shows that combinations of NPIs together with vaccinations are necessary to allow for a controlled opening of schools under sustained community transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant. For plausible vaccination rates, primary (secondary) schools require a combination of at least two (three) of the above NPIs.",

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author = "Jana Lasser and Johannes Sorger and Lukas Richter and Stefan Thurner and Daniela Schmid and Peter Klimek",

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AU - Lasser, Jana

AU - Sorger, Johannes

AU - Richter, Lukas

AU - Thurner, Stefan

AU - Schmid, Daniela

AU - Klimek, Peter

PY - 2022/12

Y1 - 2022/12

N2 - We aim to identify those measures that effectively control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Austrian schools. Using cluster tracing data we calibrate an agent-based epidemiological model and consider situations where the B1.617.2 (delta) virus strain is dominant and parts of the population are vaccinated to quantify the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as room ventilation, reduction of class size, wearing of masks during lessons, vaccinations, and school entry testing by SARS-CoV2-antigen tests. In the data we find that 40% of all clusters involved no more than two cases, and 3% of the clusters only had more than 20 cases. The model shows that combinations of NPIs together with vaccinations are necessary to allow for a controlled opening of schools under sustained community transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant. For plausible vaccination rates, primary (secondary) schools require a combination of at least two (three) of the above NPIs.

AB - We aim to identify those measures that effectively control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Austrian schools. Using cluster tracing data we calibrate an agent-based epidemiological model and consider situations where the B1.617.2 (delta) virus strain is dominant and parts of the population are vaccinated to quantify the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as room ventilation, reduction of class size, wearing of masks during lessons, vaccinations, and school entry testing by SARS-CoV2-antigen tests. In the data we find that 40% of all clusters involved no more than two cases, and 3% of the clusters only had more than 20 cases. The model shows that combinations of NPIs together with vaccinations are necessary to allow for a controlled opening of schools under sustained community transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant. For plausible vaccination rates, primary (secondary) schools require a combination of at least two (three) of the above NPIs.

KW - Agent-based model

KW - COVID-19

KW - network

KW - intervention measures

KW - school

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85123838982

U2 - 10.1038/s41467-022-28170-6

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VL - 13

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ER -

Assessing the impact of SARS-CoV-2 prevention measures in Austrian schools using agent-based simulations and cluster tracing data

Abstract

UN SDGs

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Fields of Expertise

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Calibrating school models to cluster tracing data

Agent-based simulation to asses the effectiveness of COVID-19 prevention measures in schools

Open or closed? Agent-based Simulations of SARS-CoV-2 Prevention Measures in Austrian Schools

Assessment of the effectiveness of Omicron transmission mitigation strategies for European universities using an agent-based network model

Simulation der Ausbreitung der SARS-CoV-2-Variante Omikron an einer Universität

Agent-based simulations for protecting nursing homes with prevention and vaccination strategies

Cite this

Assessing the impact of SARS-CoV-2 prevention measures in Austrian schools using agent-based simulations and cluster tracing data

Abstract

UN SDGs

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Fields of Expertise

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Activities

Calibrating school models to cluster tracing data

Agent-based simulation to asses the effectiveness of COVID-19 prevention measures in schools

Open or closed? Agent-based Simulations of SARS-CoV-2 Prevention Measures in Austrian Schools

Research output

Assessment of the effectiveness of Omicron transmission mitigation strategies for European universities using an agent-based network model

Simulation der Ausbreitung der SARS-CoV-2-Variante Omikron an einer Universität

Agent-based simulations for protecting nursing homes with prevention and vaccination strategies

Cite this